(vasep.com.vn) The year 2026 marks a phase of robust growth for Vietnam's tilapia industry, but it is also a time when international export competition is becoming fiercer. Vietnam's tilapia export turnover reached $99 million in 2025, a 140% increase compared to the previous year. In just the first four months of 2026, the export value already hit $49 million, up 151% over the same period in 2025. Amid rising global demand for affordable whitefish, Vietnam is emerging as a notable competitor to traditional tilapia powerhouses, including China, Indonesia, Brazil, and Egypt.
China dominates the industry but faces pressure to expand markets
China remains the dominant player in the global tilapia industry. Its total tilapia supply reached approximately 2.1 million tons in 2025, with around 60% of production exported—equivalent to about 1.1 million tons. This figure is projected to rise to 1.15 million tons in 2026.
In 2025, China's tilapia exports to the U.S. market declined due to the impact of reciprocal and additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese goods. Vietnam successfully capitalized on this market gap to penetrate and expand during 2025. Although tariff reductions in 2026 have allowed Chinese tilapia to return to the U.S. market, China is gradually shifting from relying on a single market to a broader diversification strategy. Chinese tilapia enterprises are ramping up exploitation of markets within the RCEP bloc and view the EU as a potential expansion target in the near future.
Brazil: Both the largest customer and a potential competitor
Brazil is the largest tilapia producer in the Americas, with production reaching approximately 707,500 tons in 2025, up nearly 7% from the previous year. Although it is currently the number one import market for Vietnamese tilapia—accounting for over 50% of total export turnover—Brazil is simultaneously expanding its domestic production capacity. The most evident protectionist move is Bill 6331/25, which was passed by the Agricultural Committee of the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, proposing a ban on tilapia imports to protect the domestic farming sector. The bill is currently under review by subsequent committees before being put to a plenary vote.
Egypt focuses exports on the Middle East
Egypt is one of the top three tilapia producers globally, with an output of 1.7 million tons in 2024, accounting for 99% of the total production in the MENA region. According to data from the Egyptian Food Export Council (FEC), the country exported 17,000 tons of fresh/chilled tilapia in 2024, valued at $9.4 million. This ranked Egypt 2nd globally in this specific segment's exports, holding a 20% global market share. Egypt's primary market is the UAE (accounting for 61% of export value), followed by Kuwait, Qatar, Tunisia, and Libya. This demonstrates that Egypt is focusing on the Middle East and North Africa region, avoiding direct competition with Vietnam in traditional markets. However, if Vietnam aims to expand into the Middle East, Egypt will be a competitor to reckon with.
Against the backdrop of growing global demand for affordable whitefish, competition in the global tilapia market is forecast to intensify, especially as competitors concurrently expand production and consolidate their positions in key markets.
